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Figures, analysis and comment supplied
quarterly by
Richard Proctor-Sims
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January-March
2007 M/HCV
sales a surprising 21.2%
ahead of First-Quarter 2006
- by Richard Proctor-Sims
BECAUSE
there have now been three
consecutive years of new medium and heavy vehicle industry
growth and because interest and exchange rates are now less
favourable, no commentator seemed willing to predict more
than nominally improved industry sales in 2007. While –
let it be said – sales of new cars, which are, of course,
the largest vehicle sector, are slightly down on a
quarter-to-quarter basis, all the commercial vehicle sectors
have registered sizeable quarter-on-quarter growth:
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14.0% for
light commercials (LCVs)
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10.6% for
medium commercials (MCVs)
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29.9% for
heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs)
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21.2% for
M/HCVs combined
Table A
summarises the first-quarter performances of all the new
vehicle market sectors for 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. While
a year ago we noted that the size of the overall market
might double in the four years to 2008, the size of some
sectors and subsectors – notably medium trucks (Table 2)
and extra heavy trucks (Table 4) – has already more than
doubled in only three years.
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Table
A.
First quarter and index
comparisons for new vehicle sales in 2004 to 2007
(Q1 2004 = 100)
(red
= highest index figures) |
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Q1 2004 |
Q1
2005 |
Q1
2006 |
Q1 2007 |
|
Cars |
69842 |
100 |
85983 |
123 |
104174 |
149 |
104000 |
149 |
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LCVs |
30702 |
100 |
35687 |
116 |
44132 |
144 |
50326 |
164 |
|
MCVs |
1697 |
100 |
2448 |
144 |
3077 |
181 |
3404 |
201 |
| HCVs |
2589 |
100 |
3806 |
126 |
3781 |
146 |
4810 |
186 |
| M/HCVs |
4286 |
100 |
5472 |
128 |
6858 |
162 |
8314 |
194 |
|
Total market |
104830 |
100 |
127081 |
121 |
155272 |
148 |
180665 |
172 |
Highlights in the
following numbered tables, which analyse new commercial vehicle
sales sector by sector, include:
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• the debut
of Super Group’s Firmaco Powerstar trucks in the heavy and
extra-heavy truck categories
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the strength
of DaimlerChrysler’s various divisions, which contributed
to a combined dominant share of 23.2% of the total market,
or almost one-and-a-half times as much as the share of
second-placed Toyota (16.0%)
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the rapid
sales growth from Scania, General Motors, Iveco and Nissan
Diesel and the recovery of Volvo, whose 2006 results were
disappointing
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the relatively
poor performances of MAN, Tyco’s various divisions, and
even the stellar newcomer Tata
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the very low
sales by Gaz, Volkswagen, Fiat, BMC – which occupy the
last four places in Table 1
An innovation is
the addition of many of the manufacturers’ vehicle makes to
the tables in this month’s issue. While any forecast for the
remainder of 2007 may turn out to be off the mark, we remain
sufficiently confident to predict that:
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the previous
record, which stood for no less than a quarter of a century
– 30 742 M/HCV units sold in 1981 – will be broken
again, as it was in 2006
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the strength
of the extra-heavy truck market will underpin the strong
current economic activity and will also contribute a
foundation for continued growth in the future.
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Comment:
The colour entries in
this and the following tables indicate manufacturers whose
year-on-year increases were higher than average. The only
changes compared with the first 10 positions in the table
for the full years 2005 and 2006 are (1) Toyota Trucks has
overtaken Tata to regain its almost traditional second
position to DaimlerChrysler and (2) Scania has leapfrogged
Volvo and Iveco to move into eighth position. The arrival of
Super Group and the near-withdrawal from the medium and
heavy commercial vehicle markets of the players occupying
the last four positions in the table are also referred to in
the introduction.
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Comment:
Only two to three years
ago, this vehicle category featured only some half-a-dozen
main competitors, with Mercedes-Benz and Iveco accounting
for most van sales and Toyota, Nissan Diesel and Isuzu most
truck sales. Since then, the number of MCV players has more
than doubled, although the future of those occupying
positions 12-15 seems in some doubt.
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Comment:
The dominance of the
market leaders remains, with the first four players
accounting for four of every five vehicles sold in this
category. Although some of the vehicles of the manufacturers
in the lower half of the table are moving into the higher
weight category, "heavy vehicles" are no longer
the market’s poor relation: they may, indeed, contribute
as many as 8000 units to this year’s M/HVC sales
total.
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Comment:
This vehicle category’s
quarter-on-quarter sales increase of 45% for 2007 (compared
with 2006) is unprecedented. Q1 sales usually contribute
about 20% to a full year’s sales; if this pattern were
followed, the number of extra heavies sold in the current
calendar year would exceed 15,000 units, which, despite the
current demand from both public-sector and private-sector
buyers, seems unlikely. Contributing to the surge, Volvo has
recaptured some of its lost 2006 sales, Tata has moved from
fifth to third position with a very strong sales quarter,
Nissan Diesel, Scania and Freightliner have all enjoyed a
successful sales period, and Super Group has entered the
market with something of a flourish.
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Comment:
There is no
significance in the slight reduction in bus sales compared
with the figure for Q1 2006. the fourth quarter is usually
best for this vehicle category. Scania not only leads the
table for the first quarter but is the most successful
exporter of all the manufacturers, registering 22 sales of
buses outside the Southern African Customs Union area in
addition to its export figure of 26 trucks. Daf, Nissan
Diesel, Volkswagen and Iveco have all started the year with
at least a handful of bus sales.
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The tables refer
to Naamsa members’ sales of new trucks and buses in South
Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland - the five
countries of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). New truck
and bus sales by non-members of Naamsa are not significant. Response
Group Trendline ( www.rgt.co.za
), which processes and reports the figures on behalf of Naamsa,
continuously updates anomalies in earlier reporting. This process
can lead to small discrepancies between the totals for each table
and the figures for individual manufacturers.
Analysis and
comment © 2006 Richard Proctor-Sims - fontein@wol.co.za
- from whom further information is available. Data
© 2007 Naamsa -
naamsa@iafrica.com
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