| Past
Issues |
February
2005 |
Positive
outlook but many issues need addressing
In terms of sales, we at Toyota Trucks are very positive about sales in 2005. We predict a 10,5% growth in total truck sales, a total of 23 000 units for 2005. The predicted growth is not at the same levels experienced in 2004 and although we might be seen to be conservative in this regard, we do not believe that the market has the capacity to continue to grow at these exceptional rates.
In terms of macro-economic indicators/events, the factors in this regard that have the most impact on our industry are obviously the exchange rates, interest rates, business confidence as well as legislation which in our view will not change drastically. Obviously the exchange rate is not conducive to a flourishing export industry, which might hamper road transport demand to an extent. However, imports are positively affected and consumer spending should remain at similar levels than were experienced in 2004. This does positively impact on the turnover of the retail sector of the economy specifically which, in turn, will have a positive effect on the demand for medium commercial vehicles.
The construction and building industry is also to benefit from the current state of the economy as well as from the preparations that will start to escalate for the Soccer World Cup in 2010. Gautrain's development might also impact positively on demand within these sectors of the economy. The detailed impact of these events on the demand for commercial vehicles will only be more accurately established during 2005.
In summary, we do not believe that general economic factors will change drastically and have an impact on the demand for trucks - either positively or negatively.
HAROLD
BARNARD - General Manager, Toyota Trucks... BEE will have
an effect on the industry |
Socio-political front
On the socio-political front, we believe that politically, the country is possibly as stable as it could be at this point in time. BEE will have an effect on the structure of the industry but we do not believe it will impact on the growth. There will be moves for large corporates in the industry to restructure and get involved in BEE transactions, yet mostly on existing operations and not necessarily incremental business opportunities.
From a socio-political point of view, obviously the aim of Government to provide basic services to the population at large will impact on the industry. However, this has been on the cards for quite some time now and factors other than capacity in terms of equipment need to be addressed in order to enable Government to deliver on their promises. (See next point).
Driver health
In our view, a critical aspect in terms of the future sustainability of this industry relates to drive health. However, it is an acknowledged aspect and many institutions are getting on the bandwagon to try find solutions to this problem. It's just a pity - once again - that there is no combined and focussed effort from the industry to address this issue.
Professional owner/operator schemes will, in our view, gain momentum in the future but what is required once again is an effort by the industry to tackle this issue and create a structure within which this can be implemented successfully to the benefit of all concerned in the long run.
Diesel Quality
Cleaner diesel is on the cards. Current indications are that by 2006, cleaner diesel will be legislated. We are currently studying the possible effect that this might have on older technology engines and do not wish to comment at this stage apart from stating that Toyota SA will welcome such moves as it is in line with international actions to ensure cleaner emissions and a safer environment.
Industry Image
Overloading is but only one single aspect that impacts on the image of the industry among the general public. Overloading does not affect the general public who are generally ill informed on the effects of overloading on the roads and thus their daily quality of life. The most significant factor in our view is driver behaviour, as well as smoke emissions from trucks on our roads. Too much emphasis is placed on policing the overloading problem, which must be tackled in a much wider sense - i.e. responsible business practices and addressing the general structure of the industry. In this regard, shippers need to pay fair and viable rates and the ease of entrance into the industry needs to be addressed.
Policing as a means to enforce operator and driver behaviour is vital yet, as in general society, responsible citizenship is rather where the focus should lie. Only once this becomes a culture will we experience a change in the general perception of the industry. As long as truck manufacturers also see the general public as a nuisance at shows such as Auto Africa, and not encourage the awareness of the general public through interaction in an effort to convey the importance of the industry to them, this will not change.
Legislation
We probably have some of the best and most comprehensive legislation in the world. However, it is complex and if not enforced, will not be worth the paper on which it is written. Driver hours, smoke emissions, roadworthiness of vehicles and general adherence to the rules of the road needs to be further developed and enforced.
Another issue that is affecting the industry negatively at this point in time is the homologation requirements. There are far too many delays in dealers being able to register vehicles on the Natis system, especially when changes to the vehicle - such as chassis lengthening/shortening - are effected. This is an issue that the industry as a whole also needs to address with the DOT and SABS. This impacts heavily on dealer financial viability as well as customer relationships.
Future technology
Cost is currently prohibiting the use of materials such as aluminium but such materials will definitely be used more in future in applications where issues such as payload (and general capacity utilisation) become more important in the industry. The control over quality standards pertaining to body builders has been addressed to some extent through the MIB registration system, yet it is our belief that more needs to be done again as an industry.
Harold Barnard
General Manager
Toyota Trucks
