February 2005

WITH M/HCV sales in 2004 reaching a higher-thanpredicted 20 820 total, this year’s sights will be 3000 units higher, and in order to pass the 1982 figure of 23 764 units. Such a new target would require "only" a further year-on-year increase of about 14%, or hardly more than half the 27.3% 2004-on-2003 improvement. (A rather-less likely 48% increase, would, however, be needed for 1981’s all-time record of 30 742 units to be broken!) Naamsa itself - which early in January 2005 described the 2004 South African market as one of the best performing internationally - expects a further double-digit increase in 2005. With the strong rand and increasing international competition as the only negative factors, Naamsa lists six positives to justify its optimism for the industry: 

• "Low inflation coupled with accommodative monetary policy and prospects for further modest interest rate reductions. 
• "Strong consumer sentiment and business confidence. 
• "Stable and disciplined macro-economic policies coupled with significantly higher government spending on infrastructural projects as well as rising private sector investment. 
• "Improving foreign reserves and progressively positive country investment ratings. 
• "Buoyant prices of South Africa’s main commodity exports. 
• "Prospects of sustained real gross domestic growth in excess of 4% per annum."

 Naamsa further expects South Africa’s vehicle production to pass the half-million mark for the first time in 2005. "Total domestic new vehicle production," it says in the same January statement, "should receive a substantial boost from higher domestic sales and specifically from existing and various new vehicle export programmes. [Output is] expected to rise to well over 500 000 vehicles compared to the production figure in 2004 of about 459 000 units." Sales of M/HCVs continued to outperform those of other sectors of Naamsa members’ Southern Africa’s new vehicle industry for the full 2004 year. Thus: 

The last-quarter surge in LCV sales led to the 2004 total falling only 1946 units short of the record total of 129 575 achieved in 1996. Car sales came within 374 units of the record set up in 1981, when 301 528 units were sold The totals are for Naamsa members. If sales not currently reported in detail are added, the Southern African new vehicle market amounted to more than 480 000 units, the highest on record. December was a run-away month for the car and LCV sectors – but less so for H/HCVs – pushing the year-on-year improvement for the industry as a whole a further 1.2 percentage points higher to an impressive 22.0%.

• The colour entries in this and subsequent tables indicate players whose yearon- year sales increases were higher than average.
• MAN had a disappointing year, except in the bus segment. DaimlerChrysler and Tyco (International, Daf) and, to a lesser extent, Volvo and Toyota/Hino, all made lower than average gains. While new players Volkswagen and Tata performed best on a percentage basis. General Motors (formerly Delta), Nissan Diesel, Iveco and Scania also made major gains. 

• Although Toyota, DaimlerChrysler and Nissan Diesel are well entrenched, Tata’s growing strength and representation for its medium and light commercials may see it challenging the top three in this table by the end of 2005.

• The big winner in this reduced segment in 2004 was Isuzu, which has gained strength following General Motors’s buyout of Delta. In fourth position in 2003 and moving up a place in 2004, Isuzu may gain further ground in 2005. 

• If DaimlerChrysler’s Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner truck sales are counted together, the other manufacturers compared as follows in 2004 and 2003 Tyco – International and Daf – are also taken together): 

• MAN captured 48% of the total bus market in 2004 _ its best performance in any table. 
• While buses provide most public road transport in many other countries, sales of minibus taxis in our market averaged 850 a month for the last four months of 2004, or the equivalent of almost a year’s bus sales.