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2007
was yet another record year for new Southern African medium and
heavy truck and bus sales
by Richard
Proctor-Sims |
THE CONTINUED growth
of the new medium and heavy truck and bus sectors resulted in a total sales
figure for 2007 that was 12.1% higher than the previous year. This was all
the more remarkable in the light of:
• the already very
high – indeed record – sales returns for 2006
• the prevailing high interest rates and generally
unfavourable economic
environment On the other hand, the ongoing strong development of the South
African infrastructure has in itself been sufficient to guarantee today’s
high confidence in the region’s transport and civil and other heavy
engineering sectors.
The performance of the medium
and heavy commercial vehicle sectors was not, however, shared by the new
vehicle industry’s other sectors. Cars lost ground and light commercials
achieved no more than a year-on-year growth of 2.4%.
For the five years 2002-2007
the cumulative growth in new M/HCV sales was no less than 170% (from 13,705
to 37,063 units), with the following yearly increases:
• 2002-2003 – 19%
• 2003-2004 – 28%
• 2004-2005 – 32%
• 2005-2006 – 21%
• 2006-2007 – 12%
We believe it likely that
sales for the first two quarters of 2008 will be slightly ahead of Q1 and Q2
2007 but it is too early to suggest whether growth will still be likely in
the second half. Whatever happens, the current M/HCV growth cycle reached an
unprecedented eighth year in 2007.
Of the seven tables which
follow, Table 1 shows the performance of the manufacturers who contributed
to the year’s total new medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales, Tables
2-5 analyse these sales sector by sector, Table A summarises all new vehicle
sales for the past five years and Table B shows M/HVC sales by sector for
the past eight quarters.
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Comment:
The colour entries in this and the following four tables
indicate players whose year-on-year increases are higher than
average. All the medium and heavy commercial vehicle makes in the
stable of Mercedes-Benz South Africa – which at the end of the
year was announced as a change of name for the former
DaimlerChrysler group – contributed to that company’s excellent
2007 results. The group was responsible for 23.2% of all M/HCVs sold
last year – up from 21.5% in 2006. This means that for every
three units sold by either Toyota/Hino or Nissan Diesel
– now in second and third position – MBSA sold five units. After
two verystrong years, Nissan Diesel looks poised to challenge
for Toyota/Hino’s runner-up position.
The previous No 2, Tata, slipped two places in the table. After two
strong years running, Iveco is
now comfortably ahead of Tyco, whose 2007 sales were close
to their 2005 levels. Scania, which is also South Africa’s heavy
commercial vehicle industry’s
strongest exporter, has overtaken Swedish rival Volvo. Super Group
(see Table 4) had a successful debut. Although 18 manufacturers or
distributors – representing 25
marques –theoretically compete in the medium and heavy commercial
vehicle markets, some of them retain no more than a nominal
presence. |
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Comment:
The top six players accounted for 80% of this table’s total
sales, with the remaining nine players contributing only 20%. Renault
sold no units during the year, while in the fourth quarter Gaz, Peugeot
and Opel between them reported only a sprinkling of sales. Only one of
the five leading players – Mercedes-Benz – improved its sales by
more than the sector average. Of the other leading players, Tata lost
most ground and left Toyota with a clear lead. |
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Comment:
Heavy trucks enjoyed a second successive very good year, with sales
in 2007 45% higher than they were in 2005. Domination at the top is even
more pronounced than for medium trucks, with four of the 11 players
contributing more than 80% of sales. Volkswagen made its debut in this
sector during the year. Volvo sold no trucks in this weight category
during the year. |
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Comment:
Extra-heavies achieved the highest growth of all the commercial
vehicle sectors. Tata was the only vehicle producer in this category’s
Top 13 to sell fewer units in 2007 than it did in 2006. All three of
Mercedes-Benz’s divisions had a good year, but Tyco’s three
divisions did less well. Although the market was more evenly distributed
than some of the other sectors, the first six players contributed 70% of
total sales, and the last 12 players only 30%. Super Group and
Volkswagen both introduced their first extra-heavies to the South
African market during the year. No new Macks reached the market in 2007,
while there were very few sales of Tatas, Dafs, Renaults and BMCs in the
fourth quarter. |
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Comment:
While in 2006 the three leading players in this market accounted
for four of every five buses sold, the same three players sold almost nine
of every 10 new buses in 2007. At the same time, the spread among the
remaining six players was much more even than in 2006. The big loser was
Volvo, overtaken by Daf in fourth position. |
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NOTES
(1) After four years of
growth (2002-2006), car sales declined in 2007.
(2) The growth cycle for LCVs now extends for five years (2002-2007).
However, growth slowed considerably between 2006 and 2007.
(3) The growth cycle for M/HCVs had reached its eighth year by 2007,
with continued strong growth between 2006 and 2007.
(4) The previous record of 30 742 M/HCVs sold in 1981, which had stood
for 25 years until it was broken in 2006, was broken again in 2007, this
time by a convincing 20%, indicating that the spectre of the 1980s may
now at last have been laid to rest. |
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NOTES
(1) MCVs present a
two-year picture of steady growth, with the third quarter (Q3) the
strongest, which is typically the case. Unusually, however, Q3 2006
remained stronger than Q3 2007.
(2) HCVs displayed an almost perfect growth pattern, with each quarter
of 2007 higher than the comparable quarter of 2006. In this case, the
highest index figure was Q3 2007.
(3) EHCVs showed even stronger growth, with the pattern similar to the
one for HCVs. Unusually in this case, however, Q4 2007 was the strongest
quarter, indicating a continuing, and unseasonal, high demand for new
premium transport and engineering vehicles.
(4) Quarterly indices for buses are less significant, although Q4 has
traditionally been the strongest quarter.
(5) The totals adjust the discrepancies of the different sectors.
Following EHCVs’ strong showing, however, the strongest quarter was
also Q4 2007, suggesting the likelihood of continued growth, at least in
the first two quarters of 2008, compared with Q1 and Q2 2007. |
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The tables refer to
Naamsa members’ sales of new trucks and buses in South Africa, Botswana,
Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland ¯ the five countries that make up the
Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). New truck and bus sales by
non-members of Naamsa are not significant. Response Group Trendline ( www.rgt.co.za
), which processes and reports the figures on behalf of Naamsa,
continuously updates anomalies in earlier reporting. This process can lead
to small discrepancies between the totals for each table and the figures
for individual manufacturers.
Analysis and comment
© 2007 Richard Proctor-Sims - fontein@wol.co.za
- from whom further information is available. Data © 2006 Naamsa ¯ naamsa@iafrica.com |
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