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Figures, analysis and comment
supplied
quarterly by
Richard Proctor-Sims
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First-half
M/HCV sales still 15.8%
ahead of January-June last year
- by
Richard Proctor-Sims
WHILE Southern
Africa’s overall sales of new vehicles are now lower than
they were for the comparable period last year, truck sales
have continued to show year-on-year growth. Two
pointers:
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while
sales of extra-heavy trucks remain the strongest segment
of the market, secondquarter growth was much lower than
in the first quarter
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lower
growth rates also apply to the other sectors, while in
the case of the bus market there was negative
growth
If the present
trend continues, we can expect no more than low-single-digit
growth for the medium and heavy commercial market as a whole
for the full 2007 year compared with 2006.
Our market has
had an unprecedentedly long bull run of well over three
years and although some belt-tightening may be necessary,
the country’s infrastructure needs will almost certainly
ensure that the heavier truck segments, especially,
experience, at worst, a soft landing or, more likely,
continued – albeit less dramatic – growth.
Comparisons
for the first six months of 2007/2006 show:
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a 6.8%
decline in the new car market
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a 12.4%
increase in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) market
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an 8.3%
increase in the medium commercial vehicle (MCV) market
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a 14.5%
increase in the heavy commercial vehicle
(HCV) market
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a 28.6%
increase in the extra-heavy commercial vehilce (EHCV)
market
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a 15.2%
decline in the bus maket
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a 15.8%
increase for the whole M/HVC market
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a 0.6%
decline for the whole new vehiclemarket
Table A
summarises the first-six-months performances of the medium
and heavy commercial vehicle sectors for 2004, 2005, 2006
and 2007.
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Table
A.
First six months and index
comparisons
for new vehicle sales in 2004 to 2007 (2004 = 100)
(red
= highest index figures) |
| |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
|
MCVs |
3 691 |
100 |
5 691 |
154 |
6 711 |
182 |
7 270 |
197 |
| HCVs |
1 712 |
100 |
2 323 |
136 |
3 071 |
179 |
3 516 |
205 |
|
EHCVs |
3 510 |
100 |
4 058 |
116 |
4 918 |
140 |
6 323 |
180 |
| Buses |
377 |
100 |
449 |
119 |
552 |
146 |
468 |
124 |
| M/HCVs |
9 290 |
100 |
12 521 |
135 |
15 264 |
164 |
17 675 |
190 |
| totals |
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The following
numbered tables analyse new medium and heavy commercial
vehicle sales by total and by sector.
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Comment:
While this table shows manufacturers’ totals,
the analyses in Tables 2-5 show the various manufacturers’
different makes, or marques. The colour entries in this and
the following tables indicate manufacturers whose
year-on-year increases are higher than average. Compared
with the first quarter, Nissan Diesel and Tata have changed
positions, as have Iveco and Scania, Nissan and Ford, and
Volkswagen and Gaz. Except for 15th placed Volkswagen, whose
sales picked up in the second quarter, the manufacturers at
the foot of the table are either fairly inactive or wholly
inactive. DaimlerChrysler’s divisions contributed to this
manufacturer’s 23.9% of the total market – up 0.7%
compared with Q1 and more than the combined total sales
figure for the players occupying positions 5-8 on our table.
Volvo, which had a poor run last year, has consolidated the
recovery it began in the first quarter of this year.
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Comment:
Although no fewer than 15 players compete in the
medium truck market, the first three account for more than
half the total sales, with this percentage rising to nearly
59% with the addition of Mercedes-Benz’s sister company in
the DaimlerBenz group, Fuso. Tata, which headed this table
last year, has dropped to third position and is, indeed, the
only manufacturer in the first eight positions in this table
to sell fewer vehicles than it did in the first half of
2006.
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Comment:
In a more extreme comparison than that of the
previous table, the first three players in the heavy
commercial vehicle market account for 65% of total sales and
the first four 82%. The low sales returns for the vehicle
makes in the bottom half of the table is mainly the result
of their representative vehicles having moved into the
over-16.5-ton-GVM category (see Table 4).
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Comment:
The strength of this – the premium truck –
sector of the market is confirmed by the ratio of gainers to
losers – 13 to 3, with all the losers at the bottom end of
the table. While not able to maintain the 45% growth
recorded for Q1, the manufacturers’ combined growth for
the first half of the year is still more than commendable.
Of Tyco’s three contenders in this market, only
International has shown growth, while the sales returns for
Daf and Renault have both turned downwards. Between them,
DaimlerChysler’s three divisions – Mercedes-Benz,
Freightliner and Fuso – dominated this market, with almost
30% of the total of extra-heavy commercial vehicles.
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Comment:
There is unlikely to be any significance in the reduction in
the number of buses sold in the first half of this year
compared with the figure for the same six months of 2006.
This is partly because the fourth quarter is usually best
for this vehicle category. What is interesting, however, is
that there should be so much competition, or would-be
competition, in such a small market. However, the intentions
of all except the four long-standing players in the Southern
African bus market – MAN, Scania, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo
– are not yet clear.
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The tables refer
to Naamsa members’ sales of new trucks and buses in South
Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland - the five
countries of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). New truck
and bus sales by non-members of Naamsa are not significant. Response
Group Trendline ( www.rgt.co.za
), which processes and reports the figures on behalf of Naamsa,
continuously updates anomalies in earlier reporting. This process
can lead to small discrepancies between the totals for each table
and the figures for individual manufacturers.
Analysis and
comment © 2006 Richard Proctor-Sims - fontein@wol.co.za
- from whom further information is available. Data
© 2007 Naamsa -
naamsa@iafrica.com
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