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Copyright
© 2001 FleetWatch magazine and FleetWatch On-Line.
No
part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior written
permission from the publishers. Views published are not necessarily
those of the publishers.
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Figures, analysis and comment supplied
quarterly by
Richard Proctor-Sims
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Growth
drops from 34.8% (first half) to 33.5% (first nine
months)
THE slight
drop in the growth rate – from +34.8% for the first six
months of 2005 compared to the same period in 2004, to
+33.5% for the first three quarters – should not be read
as any weakening in the market. The third quarter increase
was lower only because the comparison was with a strong
equivalent period in 2004.
For the M/HCV
sectors of the market, the third quarter was marked by one
caution and one encouragement. The first was the exactly
static sales of MCVs in Q2 and Q3, while the second was the
substantial quarter-on-quarter increase in sales of HCVs
(both highlighted in Table A). Tables A and B illustrate and
size and pattern of the growth of the different
sectors.
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Table
A.
Unit sales and index comparisons for the first three
quarters of 2005 2004 2005 Year-on-year increase |
| |
2004 |
2005 |
Year-on-year increase |
| Cars |
85
983 |
100 |
89
234 |
104 |
103
175 |
120 |
| LCVs |
35
642 |
100 |
40
101 |
113 |
43
811 |
123 |
| MCVs |
2
448 |
100 |
3
243 |
132 |
3
243 |
132 |
| HCVs |
3
024 |
100 |
3
806 |
126 |
4
379 |
145 |
| M/HCVs |
5
472 |
100 |
7
049 |
129 |
7
622 |
139 |
| Total
market |
127
097 |
100 |
136
384 |
107 |
154
608 |
122 |
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Table
B.
Sales by Naamsa members for the first nine months of
2004 and 2005 2005 (Q1) 2005 (Q2) Quarter-on-quarter
increase |
| |
2005
(Q1) |
2005
(Q2) |
Quarter-on-quarter
increase |
| Cars |
220
446 |
278
354 |
+26.3% |
| LCVs |
94
001 |
119
540 |
+27.2% |
| MCVs |
6
234 |
8
928 |
+43.2% |
| HCVs |
8
854 |
11
212 |
+26.6% |
| M/HCVs |
15
088 |
20
140 |
+33.5% |
| Total market |
329
535 |
418
034 |
+26.9% |
In the
numbered tables which follow, the performance of the Indian
company Tata, which has been amember of Naamsa (the National
Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa) for
less than two years, continues to be the industry’s number
one talking point. Tata is now fourth in overall sales
(Table 1), second for MCVs (Table 2), fifth for heavy trucks
(Table 3) and 10th for extra-heavy trucks (Table 4). Only in
the bus market is it not represented.
With the
buoyant state of the new commercial vehicle market, new
entrants regularly make their appearance. In the third
quarter, Gaz (MCVs) and BMC (buses) sold their first
vehicles.
The
contribution of the new M/HCV market to the region’s
expanding GDP is indicated by the average suggested retail
prices of the vehicles in these sectors multiplied by the
number of units sold:
-
Medium
commercials: R250 000 (or a total of R2.2 billion for
the nine months)
-
Heavy
commercials: R380 000 (or a total of R1.5 billion for
the nine months)
-
Extra-heavy
commercials: R880 000 (or a total of R5.8 billion for
the nine months)
-
Buses:
R600 000 (or a total of R440 million for the six
months)
These add up
to a total GDP contribution from new M/HCVs of R10 billion
for the first three quarters of 2005.
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Comment:
The colour entries in this and the other tables indicate
players whose year-on-year increases are higher than
average.The overall year-on-year growth has slipped
slightly, from +34.8% for the first half to +33.5% for the
first three quarters. This still, however, represents a
remarkable growth of more than a third over the previous
year’s total for the same period, which in itself was more
than a quarter higher than the figure for the first nine
months of 2003. Volvo, Iveco, Volkswagen and Peugeot are not
benefiting from the strong market, while the growth of
Scania, Nissan and Tyco is also below average, as is that of
DaimlerChrysler, whose year-to-date growth rate slipped by
more than ten percentage points between the second and third
quarters. While Tata, Toyota/Hino and General Motors
continue to perform extraordinarily well, the palm for
third-quarter growth must go to MAN, which boosted its
first-half growth of just short of +15% to no less than 50%
for the nine-month period. Ford and Fiat were new entries
when we last reported, and they have now been joined by BMC
(buses) and GAZ (medium commercials).
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Comment:
Without Tata and the
contributions from new players Ford, Fiat and Gaz, this
weight category would have shown much more modest growth. As
it is, the year-on-year increase dropped from +54.2% for the
first six months to +43.2% for the first three quarters,
with Nissan Diesel, Peugeot, Volkswagen and Iveco actually
registering fewer units sold than in the first nine months
of 2004. Tata continues to outsell both DaimlerChrysler
marques combined – Mercedes-Benz Sprinters and Mitsubishi
Fusos.
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Comment:
The performance of this
sector has continued to improve as the year has progressed.
The first quarter was 22.2% up on the first quarter of 2004,
the first six months was 35.7% ahead of the comparable 2004
figure, while the improvement for the first nine months was
41.7%. Of the established players, Toyota/Hino and MAN have
done well in percentage terms, but much of the growth has
come from two of the newer players, Tata and
Mitsubishi.
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Comment:
It is encouraging for both the industry and the economy that
this important sector grew considerably faster in the third
quarter than did the other commercial vehicle sectors.
Although the year-to-date growth seems lower than these
other sectors, the current percentage increase of 19.4% is
substantially up on the 15.6% figure for the first six
months of the year. The table "looks wrong", with
the red for nine of the players indicating above
average-growth, leaving only five players with below-average
growth, but the figures do, in fact, check out. Much of the
firmness of the third quarter is due to good performances
from MAN, Nissan, International and Hino. On the other hand,
Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Scania and Isuzu lost ground in this
quarter. The domination of the two DaimlerChrysler divisions
_ Mercedes- Benz and Freightliner – continued to weaken,
registering 32.4% of the total market for the first nine
months, compared with 33.4% for the first half and 37.6% for
the first quarter. The current 32.4% share is, however,
higher than this group’s 31.0% share for the whole of
2004. The table positions changed considerably between the
second and third quarters, with Nissan Diesel, Freightliner
and Daf each gaining one place and Tata two places.
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Comment:
While not dramatic, the improvement in the bus and
coach market continued as the year progressed. While
essentially a three-horse race, with MAN, Scania and
Mercedes-Benz having some 85% of the market, there are still
three more names in this table than there were a year ago
– BMC, Western Star and Iveco, the last of which was
previously a major player in the days when the then Italian
management of Putco preferred Ivecos, which are part of the
Fiat group.
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The tables refer to
Naamsa members’ sales of new trucks and buses in South Africa,
Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, - the five countries of
the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). New truck and bus sales
by non-members of Naamsa are now not thought to be significant.
Analysis and comment © 2005 Richard Proctor-Sims - fontein@wol.co.za
from whom further information is available. Data © 2005 Naamsa - naamsa@iafrica.com
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