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Figures, analysis and comment
supplied
quarterly by
Richard Proctor-Sims
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Despite poor third quarter, new M/HCV
sales remain 11.6% ahead
for January-September
by Richard Proctor-Sims
Southern African customs union sales of all new medium and heavy commercial vehicles above three-and-a-half tons were 11.6% higher for the first nine months of 2007 than they were for the equivalent period in 2006. Emphasising the soft third quarter, the overall increase was more than four percentage points lower than the comparison for the first six months.
The sales pattern for the third quarter makes it clear that higher interest rates, higher fuel, labour, steel, plastic and other input costs, coupled with weaker exchange rates between the rand and the currencies of major manufacturing countries, are now affecting the sales of commercial vehicle as well as passenger vehicles, which were affected earlier in the present cycle.
This trend will almost certainly continue for the remainder of 2007 and into the new year. Our earlier forecast
(Fleetwatch, July 2007) that we can expect "no more than low-single-digit growth for the medium and heavy commercial market as a whole for the full 2007 year compared with 2006" may then be confirmed.
At this stage, however, the outlook for medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales in 2008 is not unfavourable. While a new record year may not be in sight, we expect 2008 sales to be not far below those of the current year. Infrastructure expenditure ahead of the 2010 Foodball World Cup and and other capital expenditure associated with transport and other civil engineereing projects - notably the Gautrain - will remain strong, and the general strengthening of the economy will also have a positive influence. Looking further ahead, prospects seem favourable for a new record year in 2009 or 2010.
Table A compares the sales of the whole new vehicle market in the first nine months of 2006 and 2007. Car sales, which dominate the total market, are down by about one-twelfth. The other sectors still show year-on-growth, varying from modest to substantial (in the case of the combined heavy vehicle sector - see Tables 3-5). Across the market, the growth has declined as the year has progressed. It should, however, be borne in mind that 2006 was a record year for all sectors of the new vehicle market.
Table B shows the total sales and indices for the four sectors of the M/HCV market for the first nine months of 2005, 2006 and 2007. As well as confirming a stronger overall growth in 2006 than in 2007, the table illustrates the relative strengths of the different sectors, with heavy trucks performing best in 2006 and extra-heavies showing the highest growth in 2007.
Tables 1-5, which
follow, analyse new medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales
by manufacturer or make and by sector.
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| Comment: The
colour entries in this and the other tables indicate
manufacturers or vehicle makes whose year-on-year increases
were higher than average. DaimlerChrysler’s marques
continue their recent well above average growth rate and
this manufacturer now sells two-fifths more vehicles than
the player in second place in the table. Iveco continues its
good run and has overtaken Tyco. Super Group’s strong
debut is the major feature of the lower half of the table.
The maxim that "the more competitive market conditions
are, the more they favour established players" is
generally borne out in this table, with – apart from the
Super Group success already referred to – only recent
entry Nissan proving an exception.
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| Comment:
Toyota comfortably keeps its first position in this
table, followed by Tata and Mercedes-Benz. Although 14 or 15
makes of vehicles are now being sold in this sector, the
first eight players in the table account for 90% of total
sales. In absolute terms, the fastest growth was recorded by
Fuso, Nissan and Iveco. Although Volkswagen appears to be
performing badly compared with the same period in 2006, its
third-quarter sales showed a considerable improvement on
this company’s results for the first half of the
year.
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| Comment:
Although the order
of the table is unchanged compared with the previous
quarter, the sales of some marques, such as Isuzu,
Mercedes-Benz and Tata, have softened somewhat, while the
five players at the foot of the table between them
contribute less than four per cent of this sector’s total
sales.
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| Comment:
Although premium
trucks remain the strongest sector of the new vehicle
market, sales of these have also weakened as the year has
progressed, with the year-on-year growth rate coming down
from +45% for the first quarter to +29% for the first half
and now +21% for the first nine months. Together, Tyco’s
three divisions – International, Daf and Renault – saw
their sales decline by one-eighth year-on-year – from 1215
units for the first nine months of 2006 to 1063 units for
the same period this year. By contrast, the combined sales
of DaimlerChrysler’s three divisions – Mercedes-Benz,
International and Fuso – increased by more than a fifth to
retain their 30% share of this market. At the top of the
table, Nissan Diesel threatens MAN’s second position,
while Freightliner has moved ahead of Volvo and could
challenge International for fourth place.
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| Comment:
There are now only three substantial competitors
in this market. Together, MAN, Mercedes-Benz and Scania
account for nine of every 10 buses sold. Volvo, whose
chassis dominate some of the country’s fleets, is at
present no more than an also ran, while the other five
players are all trying to establish – or reestablish – a
footing in this market.
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The tables refer
to Naamsa members’ sales of new trucks and buses in South
Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland - the five
countries of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). New truck
and bus sales by non-members of Naamsa are not significant. Response
Group Trendline ( www.rgt.co.za
), which processes and reports the figures on behalf of Naamsa,
continuously updates anomalies in earlier reporting. This process
can lead to small discrepancies between the totals for each table
and the figures for individual manufacturers.
Analysis and
comment © 2006 Richard Proctor-Sims - fontein@wol.co.za
- from whom further information is available. Data
© 2007 Naamsa -
naamsa@iafrica.com
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