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The Way Things Were, Are and May Be

In October 1966, Dave Scott, now technical correspondent for FleetWatch, stood in the Selby truck workshops of Cargo Motors as a greenhorn facing the opportunity of being a truck sales trainee. At the the time, he didn't have a clue as to what a differential was or what it did. On being asked to write some thoughts of his experiences and observations as we head into the new millennium, he comes to the conclusion that there is still so much to learn and that training always has - and always will - remain vital to the road transport industry. He also ventures some forecasts on how he sees the way ahead.

I started in the second half of this century trying to understand trucks by first spending three weeks in a Mercedes-Benz trick workshop listening to a top class technical manager, Wendel Ulrich. I still remember the lessons in proper pre-delivery services given to me by Mackie Klingnberg and I practice those principles in assessing new vehicles to this day.

I salute the Mercedes-Benz I knew of the sixties and seventies - they trained me to love and understand trucks and did this to many others as well. Mike Shackleford, Errol Engelbrecht, Vincent Heathcote, Ronnie Coppin, Ludwig Steiner and Rodney Sheahan are but a few serious truckers that were spawned under the three-pointed star. At the same time, they bred a love and respect for the Benz product with all it's pimples and warts.

The Mercedes-Benz range was very limited into the mid-sixties. Top model of the time was the LK2620 26 tons GVM with a meager 200 horsepower from a fully rated OM346 engine of 10,81 litres of the Mercedes models, we knew these trucks inside out and could shout features and benefits in our sleep and on command.

Max Braun was sales director of Cargo Motors at the time and pushed the intellectual capital of Cargo Motors. Max was half a century ahead of the industry - only now is intellectual capital being counted as a vital company asset.

Whatever has happened to the learning ethic? Why are two-day training course to long? Why are so many sales managers incapable of running a mini-training/information session for their sales people? Why do we never have time for training when the market is down, or up? What happened to the attitude of self-teaching where sales people actually understood the owner's handbook?

2000 Forecasts No 1

Only those that seize the challenge of being a learning individual, or organisation, will survive beyond 2000. Power over the market does not come from the margins in commodities but rather the knowledge and services around those products. This is especially true of the new truck market with the great variety of model options and driveline configurations. Those who think that price is the key, rather that ability, are due for extinction.

Nothing impacted in the truck market as much as the misguided political decisions of the past 40 years. The decision to be strategically independent for diesel power, combined with the local content program of the time that imposed heavy excise penalties, led to ADE. The ADE project was a forecasting debacle.

• ADE was projected to produce 50 000 diesel engines a year for every commercial sector - they never hit 50 000 in any single year of their 18 years existence.
• Original cost estimates indicated that diesel engines could be produced locally at 10% higher than oversees produced units - what was overlooked was the original equipment deletion allowance for a diesel engine in the completely - knocked-down (CKD) pack. Overseas manufacturers of trucks did not allow the full value of the engine that was deleted for the export kit When ADE power was introduced the cost of a new truck shot up by as much as 25% in one price hike. This was the beginning of transport inflation and expensive trucks.
• All of this produced a pre-ADE buying spree when 26 000 trucks and buses were sold in one year in 198 - we have never ever seen a truck and bus market like that again. This also skewed the forecasts of the truck manufacturers who were ever optimistic that the market could at least stay around 15 000 units annually. The 1999 truck market is forecast at only 10 000 units for all trucks over 3,5 ton GVM.
• The ADE production lines, and later ASTAS transmissions, also were the driving force behind the manufacturers' forecasts - the size of the market and the segments served in those market was determined by how the local driveline manufacturers saw the market. They also had gaps in their product line-up, so the market was not driven by customer demand but rather by what could be offered.

Developments of homelands

Another political issue was the development of the homelands. Buses and trucks of the transport systems of the so-called independent states were sponsored with central Government taxpayers' money. Thousands of buses poured into passenger transport on the most appalling road conditions. Government tenders started to drive the forecasts - a good 20% of annual sales for trucks and buses was destined for Government business.

This has all blown away now with the urbanisation of South Africa and the dissolution of the homeland system. The Government slice of the action has changed and many of the Government fleets have been privatised. The bus market is now down to a miserable figure of 500 units annually, while minibus taxi operators fight over who can plug into the cash flow generated by commuters - and kill their customers in the process.

The transport of commuters remains linked into politics and the Government is once more embroiled in how the commuters will be transported, in what vehicles and at what price. The re-capitalisation of the taxi industry is the project.

I doubt whether the good intentions of the Department of Transport and the Government can take hold in a taxi industry that does not like to pay tax, drives badly, overloads, speeds and under-maintains on the pavement. All of this is to be controlled within a straight-jacket taxi design and manufactures as laid down by the Dot.

The Government need for vehicles to enforce policies of the past also skewed the sales figures. Many all wheel drive vehicles reported as commercial sales in the past were masking the truth - they were actually for para-military use and ended up with the police. The Government agenda of the day certainly drove the system when it came to local content for the motor industry. The first local content programme gave us the heaviest vehicles in the world. The second local content programme, by value, gave us the most expensive vehicles in the world - inflation on trucks ran at 25% per annum during 1989 to 1990. The latest programme seems to have given us the most variety of trucks in the world for such a small market.

2000 Forecast No 2

Whenever the Government is involved in trying to run a transport operation, whether directly or indirectly, it will be a mess. The re-capitalisation of the taxi industry will consume resources like we have never seen before and commuters will still suffer.

The transport damp squib of the century must go to the RTQS - Road Transport Quality System. I grew up in the trucking industry with a permit parading in place. Wherever anything had to be transported, there was an official who would provide a permit - the permit industry was an amazing feature of the old South Africa.

The deregulation of the road transport industry started with a 300-kilometer radius free permit zone and the promise of the enforcement of the RTOS. Everybody made money out of RTOS seminars and the truck manufacturers sighed in relief - finally unroadworthy vehicles would be forced off the road, and the average age of trucks is increasing and now stands at 11,9 years. The speed limit of 80 kph for trucks over 9 tons GVM is a joke and the condition of taxis and trucks in our roads presents a sorry sight. We have the best laws in the world and no one to enforce them. RTQS has flopped!
Mercedes-Benz established its reputation in South Africa with trucks that could stand the overloading. The truck of the day in 1966 was the Merc 1918 - it had a 185 horsepower engine driving a six-speed constant-mesh gearbox into a spur gear hub-reduction axle. That single 13 metric ton axle was designed as an I-beam load-carrying unit, with the driveshafts separately mounted at the rear into the hub-reduction spur gears. The 13-ton axle was overloaded while the law of the day allowed only 8,2 tons.
The Mercedes-Benz 1918 was the darling of the coal run from Witbank, and ran excessively overloading is still rife. The competitive nature of the deregulated industry almost makes overloading the easiest route to survival.

2000 Forecast No 3

Nothing will change in the road transport industry. There is nothing to suggest that our First World laws will find even 2nd rate enforcement in the near to medium term. There will be more meetings and conferences over the accident and death rate on the roads. We will continue to kill 10 000 people annually and main 50 000 for an escalating annual bill of R12-billion.

Lee Ioccoca said it: "Those with best distribution system and the best service will win all the marbles for you cannot keep an advantage in the other areas for very long"

I witness the reality of this statement when Mercedes-Benz launched the 2632 into the market in 1975. That V-10 diesel engine really gave them headaches but they over-serviced the problems and supported customers to such an extent that this engine became the standard of fleets such as Unitrans. If the truth be known, the ADE 423 in it's V10 configuration was a litre thirsty, heavy beast.

The arrival of Mercedes-Benz - all manufacturers could now claim to be powered by Mercedes. So the strategy of Mercedes at the time was obtaining a market share equal to 40% of the truck market over 7,5 tons GVM, which they did get in some months.

Customers satisfaction index ratings showed Mercedes to be the top provider of parts and service and Adolf Moosbauer rested on the laurels of a 40% market share - one of the highest in the world. The challenge facing Mercedes-Benz today - now DaimlerChrysler - following the launch of the new Actors and the Atego is the same as existed with the Merc 2636 of 1976 - the best service and the best parts support will win the day. Products may change but the need for excellent parts and service support never changes.

2000 Forecast No 4

Only truck manufacturers with highly developed information technology (IT) systems will survive in the fragmented, small markets of the future. A great variety of products, running over the vast market area of southern Africa, require the best IT systems to manage this for financial returns and customer satisfaction. IT has become the key player of parts and service and those who successfully manage this end of the business will satisfy their customers and make adequate returns.

What are the unthinkable thoughts of the future that can be derived from what we can see about us at the present? Clem Sunter, in his book 'Never mind the Millennium. What about the next 24 hours?' says that "AIDS is the biggest threat to South African future - bar none".

The road transport industry is shot through with AIDS problems and can be singled out as an industry where AIDS will take a severe toll. The 2000 challenge does not lie in products, laws, systems and markets but in people. The people of the road transport industry are the element that keep the wheels turning, and when they are at risk, the wheels may stop turning. Chew for a moment on this unthinkable thought - South Africa's road transport industry comes to a grinding halt through the loss of qualified drivers who die from AIDS. Experience, age-profit and attitude are part of the make-up of a good driver. 25 years olds who have only driven light vehicles tale a long time to get into heavy, long distance work. Where is the pool of replacement? How prepared are we for this looming, tragic challenge? Before I wave a final goodbye to the 1990s, it is well to remember my trucking friends and acquaintances that did not make it to the 2000 party. There are so many that were suddenly counted out by the 'Big Umpire' while the appeared to be at the wicket for a good innings. Udo Traumann, Keith Hammond, John Reeves and many others who sold trucks and loved the diesel and dust of trucking. I salute your contribution to trucks and trucking - I will really miss you at the party of the millennium.

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