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ALTHOUGH THE IMPROVEMENT noted in the headline
really is marginal, there are nevertheless one or two encouraging signs.
Possibly the most significant is that sales of extra-heavy trucks in the
third quarter were the highest for the year’s three quarters, and 21%
higher than for the second quarter (see Table A).
Noting that Q3 is historically the strongest of the year’s
four quarters, we commented in our previous report (Fleetwatch,
July) that the total number of M/HCV units sold in Q3 would need to be at
least 15% higher than they were in Q2 in order to signal the start of a
recovery. In fact, the improvements in the case of extra-heavy trucks and
buses resulted in an increase of 8% (and not 15%) in the total number of
M/HCV units sold in Q3 compared with Q2. This was because sales of medium
trucks and heavy trucks weakened by 4% and 6% respectively between the two
quarters.
Looking forward to Q4,
calendar 2009 and calendar 2010, at least three further slight
improvements may be expected, namely:
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The indices for Q4 may be
higher than for Q3 because the recession in truck sales was well into its
stride in 2008 Q4. The improvement should discount the normal seasonal
weakness of Q4. Strong quarterly bus and coach sales are also more likely
than unlikely.
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The effect of (1) on the
full year’s returns should lead to higher indices than those recorded in
the 2009 column of Table B, which were for the first nine months.
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There seems to be a strong
likelihood that M/HCV sales returns for 2010 (including buses) will be
higher than those for the current year. This will be partly because of
some non-recurring influences, including the 2010 World Cup and the
completion of the first phase of Gautrain. No fireworks, however, should
be expected, and a return even to the levels of 2005 (see Table C) seems
unlikely before 2011 or 2012. The maxim “fall suddenly, climb up
gradually” may apply.
As usual, the three lettered
tables in the text illustrate trends, while Tables 1-5 tabulate total
M/HVC sales and sales of medium trucks, heavy trucks, extraheavy trucks
and buses.
For the sake of clarity and
ease of reading, this month’s Tables A, B and C are shown as indices only,
with the unit sales omitted. Tables A and B cover only changes in the
medium and heavy commercial vehicle markets, while Table C shows the
changes in these markets in the context of the total new vehicle industry.
In each case the highest indices for the various categories are
highlighted. Comments follow each of the tables.
Table A showed that in the
most recent quarter two of the markets of most interest to the readers of
Fleetwatch stood at about half their 2008 Q1 levels. Sales of
medium trucks were at a lower level still, while sales of buses, whose
quarterly sales are the least predictable, show an upward trend. In
contrast to medium and heavy trucks, whose sales have declined steadily
over the last four to six quarters, extra heavy trucks registered their
highest sales quarter for the year so far in the most recent quarter.
Table B compares sales for the first nine months of the
year over a six-year period. In most cases, sales were at their highest
for the 2008 period, with medium trucks being the exception. Ignoring
buses, most of the sales returns for the present year are lower than those
of five years ago, with heavy trucks, in this case, being the exception.
Table C shows that compared to sales five years ago
(2004), HCVs, which comprise heavy and extra heavy trucks and buses (our
Tables 2, 3 and 4), were the strongest of the four new vehicle sectors in
the current year to end-September, with cars the weakest, followed by MCVs
and LCVs. New car sales peaked in 2006, while the sales of the three
commercial vehicle sectors peaked a year or two later. The swiftest
decline in the table was for the HCV sector, which lost no less than half
its total sales volume between the first nine months of 2008 and the first
nine months of the current year.
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NOTE
TO TABLES 1-5. The
percentage changes in blue indicate the manufacturers or marques
whose sales declines for the first nine months were lower than the
industry averages between 2008 and 2009.
Comment:
The marginal improvement for the first
nine months (-47.6%) compared with the first six months (-48.2%)
represents a combination of improvements in Tables 2, 4 and 5
(medium commercials, extra-heavy trucks, and buses) and a
deterioration in the case of Table 3 (heavy trucks). For buses, the
improvement was considerable. While the overall improvement is to be
welcomed, it should be treated with caution as the third quarter has
traditionally been the strongest of the four quarters. With the
exception of VDL Bus, Scania, followed by Nissan, had the best
performance for the year to date, with General Motors, Volkswagen
and Volvo each recording sales declines of less than 39% |
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Comment: Mercedes-Benz now joins the players at the top
of this table who registered sales declines for the first six months
that were less than the average for this market. Mainly as a result
of this manufacturer’s better performance in the third quarter, the
average sales decline for medium commercial vehicles was better at
-43.2% for the first nine months of 2009 compared with 2008 than it
was for the first half (-44.1%). Nissan Diesel (-27.0% to -26.1%)
and Fuso ( -24.3% to -23.4%) were among the other manufacturers to
show small improvements in the comparison between the two periods. |
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Comment: Against the trend, the returns for this sector
showed a greater average decline in the first nine months of 2009
compared with 2008 (-45.4%) than for the first six months (-43.4%).
The table otherwise mirrors Table 3 in the July Fleetwatch, with the
three leaders performing slightly better than the average and the
order being unchanged. Only three players improved on their
firsthalf comparisons with 2008. The greatest improvement was by
Mercedes-Benz (from -62.8% to -52.3%), followed by Volkswagen (from
-78.8% to -70.0%) and MAN (from -58.8% to -57.0%). |
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Comment: In this table, which had seen the greatest losses in
the first six months of the year, the long list of below-averagely
performing manufacturers for the first nine months is headed by Daf
Trucks (which, however, features in Table 5), followed in order by Iveco
(more than 50% of its total sales are now buses), Tata, Renault Trucks,
Super Group, Nissan Diesel, Fuso, Hino, Freightliner and MAN. Although
the numbers are small, Volkswagen has performed best, while Scania’s
returns have also been creditable in the very difficult market. Other
manufacturers whose sales losses were lower than average were Volvo,
Isuzu, Navistar International and Mercedes-Benz. While not necessarily
indicating a turnaround, it should nevertheless be mentioned that the
56.4% loss of sales compared with the first nine months of 2008 is half
a per cent better than the comparison for the first six months (-56.9%).
Quarterly comparisons are shown in Table A.
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Comment: Although
this sector has performed below our earlier expectations in the light of
the requirements of the 2010 World Cup and the many airport and city
public transport upgrading projects, sales of buses and coaches so far
this year have been at a higher relative level than those of medium,
heavy and extra-heavy trucks. Some of the demand may be being met by
imports from non-Naamsa members, but this possible observation needs
further investigation. Although the leading two players this year
accounted for 55% of total sales (the first three: 72%; the first four:
87%), three other players deserve mention: VDL because of its rapid
growth; Daf because it is does not at present feature in our other
tables; and Tata because it has sold its first bus into our market. More
than half of Iveco’s total sales (Table 1) are now represented by bus
chassis.
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Small improvements to the
presentation of this feature are introduced from time to time. If you
have a special request, please email Richard Proctor-Sims on fontein@wol.co.za
The main tables refer to
Naamsa members’ sales of new trucks and buses in South Africa,
Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland the five countries in the
Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). New truck and bus sales by
non-members of Naamsa are not significant. Response Group Trendline ( www.rgt.co.za
), which processes and reports the figures on behalf of
Naamsa, continuously updates anomalies in earlier reporting, and this
can lead to discrepancies between the totals for each table and the figures for individual manufacturers.
Analysis and comment
© 2009 Richard Proctor-Sims fontein@wol.co.za
and Data © 2009 Naamsa naamsa@iafrica.com |
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